▶ Your Answer :
The author of this statement concludes
that the government of Balmer Island should enact a policy that restricts the
moped rentals to 25 per day, down from 50, during summer to reduce the island’s
annual moped accidents to half. To support his claim, the author points out
that a neignboring island of Seaville succeeded in achieving the half reduction
of its annual accidents last year by enforcing the similar measures so Balmer
will also be able to achieve its goal by the new restriction. The author also
asserts that this new policy will be the major cause of the reduction of its
annual accidents. However, the argument relies on a series of unproven
assumptions and is therefore unconvincing as it stands.
To begin with, the author relies
on a threshold assumption that Seaville was able to achieve the half reduction
of its annual moped accidents by enforcing the moped rental restriction.
However, the author fails to substantiate that there might be other factors
that might have helped the government of Seaville to reduce its annual moped
accidents. For example, there could have been other policies that required
Seaville inhabitants to drive moped more slowly and safely. There is not enough
evidence to conclude that the reduction of moped rental is the only reason that
caused the 50 percent reduction in Seaville’s annual accidents.
Moreover, the author once again
assumes that Balmer will be able to reduce its accidents since Seaville was
able to achieve the 50 percent reduction last year. However, the author relies
on what amount to a poor analogy between Balmer and Seaville islands. The author
should not be conclusive that the policy will have similar effects and results
in Balmer unless both of islands’ conditions are symmetric. For example, their
road situations might be different; the road situation in Balmer can be worse
than those of Seaville. This will make it hard for the policy to have similar
effects on Balmer than those of Seaville.
Finally, the author unfairly
assumes that this policy is the major cause of the reduction of moped accidents
in Balmer. He argues that the 100,000 population increase during the summer is
the main cause of annual moped accidents. However, the author overlooks the
possibilities that there might be other factors during other seasons that might
have affected the annual accidents more strongly. For example, like I mentioned
in the previous paragraph, the road situations can be really bad that they cause
the most accidents. Unless, the author provides validations mentioned above,
the argument is not cogent.
To sum, the author’s argument
relies on the analogy between Balmer and Seaville islands. He also thinks that
the 100,000 population increase during this summer is the main cause for the
annual moped accidents. To reinforce his argument, he should have provided information
on how the successful reduction in Seaville would assure that Balmer will also
be able to achieve the half reduction of annual moped accidents. He should also
have provided data that shows how restricting the moped rental during the
summer will reduce the annual accidents to half. |